In its most recent “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its projection for 2023 red meat and poultry output to 107.55 billion pounds (lbs.) due to lower expectations for production of beef, pig, and broilers.
Due to decreased steer and heifer slaughter and smaller dressed weights, the forecasted beef production was reduced to 28.96 billion pounds. Even though slaughter was slightly increased, the USDA said that the decrease in the projected pork production to 27.26 billion lbs. was due to lighter dressed weights.
In 2023 poultry production decreased due to lower expected eggs set and low hatchability. Turkey production increased to 5.58 billion lbs., while egg production was lowered to 9.24 billion doz. due to hatchery data. The USDA red meat and poultry meat forecast 106.53 billion lbs.2024, mainly due to higher beef and poultry production.
The USDA has raised the red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024, citing higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is expected to reach 25.17 billion, while pork production remains unchanged. Turkey production slightly increased to 5.65 billion lbs., while broiler production is expected to decrease due to lower prices. Milk production forecasts have been raised to 227.90 and 230.5 billion lbs., respectively, due to a lowered cow inventory.
Because of the persistently strong packer demand, the cattle price projections for 2023 and 2024 were increased to $178.50/cwt and $186.00/cwt, respectively. Based on the current price strength, the USDA increased the 2023 hog price prediction to $62.20/cwt but left the 2024 price projection intact.
The projected grill prices for 2023 and 2024 have been reduced to $1.22 per pound and $1.21 per pound, respectively. Based on current pricing and projections for sustained weak demand, turkey price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 were reduced to $1.52/lb and $1.54/lb, respectively. Forecasts for egg prices remained steady at $1.82 per ounce and $1.44 per ounce, respectively.
USDA increases 2023 butter, cheese, and NDM price forecasts, but lowers whey forecasts. Class III price rises due to higher cheese, while Class IV price rises due to higher butter and NDM prices.
According to the USDA, predictions for butter and cheese prices for 2024 have been increased because of 2023’s high prices continuing into 2024. While the NDM projection remained the same, whey prices decreased. Stronger cheese prices more than offset decreased whey prices, resulting in an increase in the Class III price. Based on rising butter costs, the Class IV price was increased. The cost of all milk was increased to $19.35/cwt.
